As the weekend draws to a close, the first big winter storm of 2025 is ramping up. Candidly, I rarely write about winter storms because they are a part of the winter cycle. However, this storm is likely to have a broad, impactful footprint, so let’s dig into it.
If the forecast pans out as expected, Washington D.C. will certainly see snowmen popping up on the National Mall. Wintry precipitation is expected in a swath spanning from the Great Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. As I write this on Saturday afternoon, the storm is ramping up over parts of Missouri and Kansas. It will shift eastward into the Ohio Valley by Sunday and reach the Washington D.C. area by Sunday evening.
There are multiple facets to this storm and hazards are already affecting parts of the U.S. Blizzard conditions with heavy snowfall rates and winds in excess of 40 mph could create “whiteout” conditions in the Great Plains. The Winter Storm Severity Index posted on the Weather Prediction Center website highlights major impacts through the Great Plains and some extreme impacts into the Ohio Valley. As a reminder, a blizzard is defined by the National Weather Service as, “A storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours).”
Here’s the latest meteorological breakdown of the storm. NOAA WPC wrote on Saturday afternoon, “A winter storm is expected to develop tonight over the central U.S. as low pressure organizes from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma…. At the surface, as the low tracks essentially due east toward the East Coast over the next 48 hours, mixed precipitation over portions of Kansas and southern Nebraska will changeover to all snow during the day on Sunday as winds increase from the north.”
While forecasts of six to twelve inches of snow will dominate headlines, there are numerous hazards that will be associated with this storm. Sleet and freezing rain will also be featured. NOAA WPC went on to say, “A swath of heavy snow exceeding 15 inches from northeastern Kansas into north-central Missouri would be the heaviest snowfall in a decade.” On the southern end of the storm, severe thunderstorms are possible with the cold front as it moves into the Mississippi Valley region. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for western Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana.
The Washington D.C. area is expecting five to ten inches of snowfall. Most of it falls on Sunday, but there could be significant residual snow on Monday as the upper level part of the storm system passes. Washington-based meteorologist Matt Cappucci explained the “back side” snowfall potential in a recent post on the social media platform X.
By the way, if you are curious about what governs precipitation type. The meteorological explanation is summarized in the graphic below. At this time of year, most precipitation starts as snow. However, if the temperature varies in the column of air between the surface and cloud, different types of precipitation can form. A column that is below the freezing mark will support snow. Freezing rain, however, indicates that there is likely a warm layer that the snow fell into and vary shallow layer of freezing air at the surface. This system will feature all four types of precipitation as temperatures vary across the complex storm.
Because of the structure of this storm, the wintry precipitation will be confined to a narrow swath. Washington D.C. and possibly Richmond will get more snow than Philadelphia or New York. However, the eastern U.S. will be locked into a cold pattern for the next week so there will be wintry teasers and storms in the coming weeks, perhaps even in the Southeast. Although, I suspect it will not look anything like the misguided, viral posts calling for a foot of snow in places like Atlanta.
Stay safe and beware of the “snow porn” that is out there playing on fears and desires for wintry weather.
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