When Exxon made some of the earliest solar energy technology investments in the early 1970s, the oil company couldn’t have expected it was jump-starting technological breakthroughs that would one day create the cheapest source of energy on Earth.
After all, Exxon was looking for ways to power its offshore oil platforms, not supply the grid with cheap electricity. Now 50 years later, cheap clean energy is on track to supply half of global electricity demand by 2030, generating trillions in investment and millions of jobs across the world.
The lesson here is that investment, innovation, and policy can unlock the clean energy breakthroughs we need to secure a safe climate future and keep energy affordable – even if those technologies are only just emerging.
So how do today’s inventors and investors identify tomorrow’s technologies?
A new online platform, the Climate Tech Atlas, just launched to highlight where innovation can accelerate global decarbonization and unlock new markets. It reveals nearly 70 “innovation imperatives” and nearly 40 “moonshots” across 24 “opportunity areas” that could accelerate progress toward net zero by 2050 in six sectors: buildings, manufacturing, transportation, electricity, and greenhouse gas removal; as well as food, agriculture, and nature.
Innovation Imperatives or Moonshots – Which matters more?
The Atlas was developed by contributing organizations Breakthrough Energy, Elemental Impact, Energy Innovation, McKinsey Sustainability, Speed & Scale, and the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. Energy Innovation modeled out the potential emissions at stake for the Atlas’ technologies.
It’s “a compass pointing to the frontiers of tomorrow,” according to Ryan Panchadsaram, co-author of Speed & Scale. The Atlas defines “innovation imperatives” as the critical needs that can help accelerate near-term pathways to reaching net zero emissions, like eliminating livestock emissions or developing truly clean cement.
“Moonshots” are the high-risk, high-reward innovations that could take longer to reach commercialization but could radically reshape our progress toward net zero, like space-based solar power or geologic hydrogen development.
Just like solar energy in the 1970s or electric vehicles in the 2000s, these potential breakthrough technologies could compress decades of decarbonization efforts into just a few years once proven at scale, alongside the clean energy technologies already being deployed like renewable energy, battery storage, and electric vehicles.
Between now and 2030, most carbon dioxide emission reductions come from existing clean energy technologies. But to reach net zero by 2050, nearly half must come from innovations still in the demonstration or prototype phase.
“Yesterday’s innovation has delivered cheap, clean technologies we must continue to deploy at scale today – but many more technological breakthroughs are on the horizon,” said Sonia Aggarwal, Energy Innovation CEO. “The Climate Tech Atlas showcases opportunities to go further on the solutions that will make our kids’ lives better.”
Gigatons of emissions at stake
According to the Atlas, the manufacturing sector has the most emissions at stake in 2050, with 26.7 gigatons forecast in that year. Commercially available technologies for this sector include industrial heat pumps, which will be key to decarbonizing manufacturing.
The electricity sector has the second-largest potential emissions at stake in 2050, with 13.3 Gt. Some commercially available technologies include wind and solar, which have grown at a record pace to push clean energy past 40% of global power supply.
The transportation sector has the third-largest potential emissions at stake in 2050, with 9.4 Gt. Potential reductions are driven by vehicle electrification for on-road transportation and improved materials and aerodynamics by 2030 to decarbonize shipping and aviation.
Investing in the clean energy economy could pay dividends
The flip side to this coin of unlocking clean energy breakthroughs to secure a safe climate future is the economic upside of investing in new markets and creating new opportunities, even when policy certainty is shaky and economic headwinds are undercutting confidence.
Global clean energy investment passed the $2 trillion mark in 2024, reflecting a six-fold growth over the past decade, and clean energy created 1.5 million new jobs in 2023 – particularly in manufacturing.
Goldman Sachs projects the global investment opportunity to reach net zero is nearly $75 trillion, and clean energy could represent 7%-10% of global market capitalization by 2030.
Clean energy could be a bet on the future, with recent history as an example. Startups founded during the 2008 financial crisis experienced substantially better long-term survival and growth despite being founded in a time of decreased capital, and despite the COVID-19 pandemic and lingering recession fears, more than 600 new tech “unicorn” companies emerged worldwide in 2021.
“Innovation has always thrived in uncertain times, and this moment is no different,” said Panchadsaram.
Mapping the climate technology road ahead
Decades of innovation have made many clean energy technologies the cheapest options available today for adding generation to the grid or shifting from internal-combustion engines to electric vehicles – cutting consumer costs while they strengthen domestic energy security.
But even the rapid deployment of these technologies still falls short of the trajectory the United Nations says is needed to hit net zero emissions by 2050 and secure a safe climate future.
As the growth of solar power shows, we don’t know which technologies will change our world and become the industries of tomorrow. Students don’t always know which areas they should study, governments don’t always know what they should fund R&D in, and investors don’t always know which ideas are worth supporting.
But what we do know is that we need to map out the road ahead in climate tech. By exploring the frontiers of innovation, the Climate Tech Atlas could help point toward those next breakthroughs on the way to a net zero future.
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