I put Destiny 2 down the instant that Ash and Iron came out, as I just could not tolerate the new activity nor more Portal grinding, even if new loot did arrive at the same time. It appears I was not alone in that, and while Destiny 3 is no stranger to playercount lows, things are getting especially dire.
As of this week, Destiny 2’s playercount is crashing to previously almost unfathomable peak concurrents on Steam. This week, we’ve seen a decline from 27K over the weekend to now 18K as of yesterday. We’re dangerously close to a 15K peak, and while I expect that to increase a bit over the weekend, we could be there by next week. And this is keeping in mind that Destiny 2’s next big expansion, Renegades, does not come out until December 2, meaning the game will have almost nothing to sustain it outside of a holiday event and pending exotic mission (which was still being worked on as of a few weeks ago, so good luck launching without bugs).
This is not the full scope of Destiny 2 players, as there are many more on console, but there is no reason to think the trendline is different there, and we are certainly in all-time low territory. We’re at a point where Destiny is sometimes dipping out of the top 100 games on Steam entirely (it’s currently #115 as I write this). This is below things like The Witcher 3, Battlefield 2042 and Payday 2. Slow and steady live games like The Finals are above it now. Previous “little brother” rival Warframe is getting close to tripling Destiny 2’s playercount.
There was obviously going to be some drop-off after The Light and Darkness saga ended, but the reduction in content produced and the reliance on forcing players to play 95% old content in The Portal as the main focus of the entire game now is rapidly causing burnout with its power gains and tier hunting. Bungie has been scrambling to buff The Portal progression and rewards, but recent changes have so far done nothing to reverse these trends.
The next target here is Renegades, over two months away. The previews for the Star Wars-themed expansion do look good, but there’s going to be a split between those rolling their eyes at the first-ever full IP collab, and those that go “oh Star Wars, cool!” I am at least somewhat skeptical that Renegades will outperform the launch of Edge of Fate, which had about a third of the launch players of The Final Shape. I am willing to bet that players tuning in for the first new Prophecy-era expansion will outweigh Star Wars enthusiasts, particularly after two more months of Portal grinding. Edge of Fate at least had content-heavy Episodes as a lead-in. And judging by Edge of Fate, Renegades will also be a one-and-done in many ways, and then it’s…back to Portal grinding within the week, most likely.
This is bad. I’ve said that a million times, but…this is very bad. I’m not sure how a turnaround happens here.
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