Republished on June 19 with new analysis of this latest upgrade surge and a warning that some key customers may have decided to ditch Microsoft altogether.
What a difference two weeks makes. June started badly for Microsoft, with news that its all-important Windows 11 upgrades had flatlined. But a fortnight later that surprising upgrade reversal has reversed again — and then some. Windows 11 has all but caught Windows 10 for the first time. If the data is right, that’s a huge turnaround in 16 days.
The data comes courtesy of Statcounter, and while it’s never going to be completely accurate — only Microsoft has the actual data, it is indicative. That means it’s the trends that matter. With little more than 100 days until Windows 10 falls off support and with more than 700 million users still on Windows 10, this could not be more critical.
At a headline level, as at June 17, Windows 10’s worldwide market share has dropped below 50% (48.9%) for the first time. More notably, Windows 11 is knocking 50% (47.7%) itself for the first time. This after Windows 11 dipped and Windows 10 recovered in May, widening the gap between new and old in the wrong direction.
If anywhere near accurate, this means almost 60 million Windows 10 users have upgraded. Clearly, May could have been a statistical anomaly and this is the data catching up, but either way it’s good news for Microsoft and the security community.
In the U.S., where Windows 11 overtook Windows 10 earlier this year, the gap is as wide as it’s been — 55.2% for Windows 11 versus 42.0% for Windows 10. In Europe, there were slight gains for Windows 11. But the highlight is Asia, where a huge 10% swing sees Windows 10 drop from 59% to 49%, and Windows 11 top 46%.
Unfortunately, this means there are still around 700 million Windows 10 users yet to upgrade. What we don’t know is where the hard floor will be found. These are the 240-million-plus Windows 10 users whose PC’s don’t meet the upgrade criteria. Microsoft and PC OEMs are pushing those users to buy new hardware, and the Windows-maker is also launching a migration tool to make the switch as easy as possible.
Two weeks from now, when the data for the full month of June is available, we will see if this was a mid month blip or the mass acceleration of upgrades has continued. No one wants to see hundreds of millions of PCs fall off support at a time when exploited Windows zero-days have become a regular monthly event.
For those with compatible PCs running a licensed version of Windows 10, the upgrade to Windows 11 remains free. Your PC will already be nagging you to upgrade, just follow the instructions. For those without, your options remain a paid support extension from October 14 or a new PC. Don’t leave it too late and leave your PC exposed.
This upgrade acceleration has started to generate some pickup now, with Windows Central noting that “with Windows 10 circling the drain,” this is “a long-overdue surge” for Windows 11. This means that, “assuming the trend continues, Windows 11 will pass Windows 10 in market share within the next month or so.”
Windows Central also points out that the figures behind this surge “are for market share of Windows versions, not desktops overall. All versions of Windows combined for 70.6 percent of the global desktop market share in June. Windows has remained relatively flat in terms of total desktop market share over the last year.”
Meanwhile, XDA Developers says that “ever since its release, Microsoft has had a rough time trying to encourage Windows 10 users to upgrade to Windows 11. Now, with Windows 10 falling out of support in October 2025, Microsoft has been really pulling out the stops to get people to make the move. People have stuck with their Windows 10 guns as the operating system continuously has a larger share of users than Windows 11, but that lead has gradually eroded over the months.”
And now “Microsoft’s dream of having Windows 11 become the dominant operating system is almost here,” as “Windows 10’s lead over Windows 11’s user base has shrunk to just over 1%, and if the trend continues even a little bit, Windows 11 will become the most-used Microsoft OS, likely until Windows 12 releases (if ever).”
It’s not all good news though. Just as those upgrades surge, one set of customers that might not be making the move are various government entities around the world, as the true cost of the Windows 11 migration becomes clear for government users.
Read the full article here
